Truckload volumes and bond yields say recession, not inflation, the bigger risk

Apr 10, 2025 at 03:48 PM CST
The U.S. economy finds itself at a crossroads following President Donald Trump’s dramatic announcement of sweeping new tariffs on imports. While some economists fear the tariffs could stoke inflation, key economic indicators – including bond yields and truckload volumes – are flashing warning signs that a recession from suppressed consumer demand and business activity may be the more pressing concern for policymakers and investors alike. On Wednesday, Trump unveiled what he called “the steepest American tariffs in a century,” imposing a minimum 10% duty on all exports to the U.S. Additionally, the administration slapped even higher tariffs on some 60 nations identified as having large trade imbalances with the United States. The scale and scope of these new trade barriers caught many off guard, with economists warning they could easily knock 1% to 1.5% off U.S. GDP growth and send goods prices through the roof.

Apr 10, 2025 at 03:48 PM CST

The U.S. economy finds itself at a crossroads following President Donald Trump’s dramatic announcement of sweeping new tariffs on imports. While some economists fear the tariffs could stoke inflation, key economic indicators – including bond yields and truckload volumes – are flashing warning signs that a recession from suppressed consumer demand and business activity may be the more pressing concern for policymakers and investors alike.

On Wednesday, Trump unveiled what he called “the steepest American tariffs in a century,” imposing a minimum 10% duty on all exports to the U.S. Additionally, the administration slapped even higher tariffs on some 60 nations identified as having large trade imbalances with the United States. The scale and scope of these new trade barriers caught many off guard, with economists warning they could easily knock 1% to 1.5% off U.S. GDP growth and send goods prices through the roof.